We are now just a few days away from the AAF ‘Protect or Pick’ QB draft, airing Tuesday, 11/27, at 8pm on CBS Sports Network. If you are out of the loop and don’t know what this draft (or the AAF) is, check out my previous mock draft here: AAF QB Mock Draft 1.0. Since then, we’ve had a few new quarterbacks added into the mix. Most notably, former Georgia Bulldog, Aaron Murray, who signed with a designation to the Atlanta Legends. There are a few things to note first:
- I pulled all the QBs from the rosters listed online and grouped them by their current affiliation
- There have been a few QBs that have signed that have not been specifically allocated to a team for one reason or another, notably Christian Hackenberg and Scott Tolzien.
- There are a couple of QBs that are (to me) in limbo. Michigan’s Denard Robinson recently signed with the Legends, but it is unclear if he is signing as a QB or a RB. Garrett Grayson was signed and designated to the Stallions, but was signed to the Broncos practice squad. It is unclear if his rights will be draft eligible or if he will simply be assigned to the Stallions if/when he returns.
Round 1
| Team | Player | College |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Fleet | **pick** | |
| Birmingham Iron | Blake Sims | Alabama |
| Arizona Hotshots | **pick** | |
| Orlando Apollos | **pick** | |
| Atlanta Legends | Aaron Murray | Georgia |
| Salt Lake Stallions | Tommy Armstrong | Nebraska |
| Memphis Express | Zach Mettenberger | LSU |
| San Antonio Commanders | Trevor Knight | Texas A&M |
| No protect picks | ||
| San Diego Fleet | Christian Hackenberg | Penn State |
| Arizona Hotshots | Luis Perez | Texas A&M-Commerce |
| Orlando Apollos | Stephen Morris | Miami |
My first 4 picks stay the same. I don’t see why the Fleet would choose to protect anyone, as they’ll have the first selection of the pool after all teams have had a chance to protect.
I still believe the Iron are locked in on Blake Sims.
The Hotshots will choose to pick as the pool will be greater than the QBs they have to choose from. The only one I could see them choosing to protect is former Sun Devil Mike Bercovici.
The Apollos have a couple good choices to protect, most notably BJ Daniels and Stephen Morris, who spent this off-season bouncing to 3 different NFL teams, Redskins, Seahawks, & Texans. However, I think GM Tim Ruskell and the ol’ ball coach will choose to pick. They’ll only have 2 picks in front of them and the recent additions make that prospect greater than what they have to protect.
In my previous mocks, I had Atlanta locked in on picking from the pool, but not now with the signing of former Georgia Bulldog Aaron Murray. Besides the local aspects of Murray’s signing, he was also drafted and played 2 years for the Kansas City Chiefs. During that time, Legends HC Brad Childress was a consultant to HC Andy Reid as a spread game analyst. Throw in OC Mike Vick’s ties to Andy Reid and you’ve got an obvious choice for starting QB of the Legends.
I still think the Stallions will be locked in on former Cornhusker, Tommy Armstrong. I think he could really fit into what HC Dennis Erickson and OC Tom Lappano want to do on offense.
Here’s where things really get tricky. The Memphis Express not only have the largest pool of QBs to choose from, they have some of the most experienced QBs in the draft (Zach Mettenberger and Matt Simms) and some of the favorite dark horses (Alex Ross, Austin Allen, and Alejandro Bennifield). In the end, I don’t think they’ll want to chance going for a pick and will choose to protect Zach Metten”baconcheese”berger (as the crew over at @MemphisAAF podcast like to say).
The last selection of the protect round is an easy one for me. The Commanders will choose to protect Trevor Knight.
Now we get to the pick selections. The Fleet will get their choice of the QBs left in the pool. I think they’ll go with one of the more high profile signings, former Nittany Lion, Christian Hackenberg. I think Hackenberg’s previous experience in a complex offense, like Bill O’Brien’s at Penn State, will be favorable to Mike Martz and Jon Kitna in San Diego.
With Hackenberg off the table, the Hotshots still have a group of experienced QBs to choose from. However, I’ve got them taking my #1 QB in this whole pool, 2017 Division 2 Player of the Year, Luis Perez. Perez is already one of the top arm talents in this pool, and is still coming into his own as a QB at 24 years old. Rams HC Sean McVay had a lot of great things to say about Perez’ work ethic during his time in camp with the Rams this season.
This leaves the Orlando Apollos with the final pick in the first round. For me, this will come down to 2 guys, Stephen Morris and Scott Tolzien. Tolzien has more professional experience than Morris, but I think Morris’ play style, and his regionality, will tilt the scales in his favor.
Round 2
| Team | Player | College |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Commanders | Scott Tolzien | Wisconsin |
| Memphis Express | Matt Simms | Tennessee |
| Salt Lake Stallions | Peter Pujals | Holy Cross |
| Atlanta Legends | Josh Johnson | San Diego |
| Orlando Apollos | B.J. Daniels | USF |
| Arizona Hotshots | Mike Bercovici | Arizona State |
| Birmingham Iron | Brandon Silvers | Troy |
| San Diego Fleet | Alek Torgersen | Penn |
With the snake format of the draft, we now go in reverse order of the first round. The Commanders will be happy to see an experienced veteran fall to them to back up the younger Trevor Knight. Tolzien gives them stability at the position and the ability to work them both into the game-plan if they decided to go that route.
The Express will then double down on local experience. I feel like Memphis wants to stick with the local allotment and will grab the veteran Simms, then will look to take some young talent in the later rounds.
I’m sticking with this second round pick for the Stallions. Pujals is one of my sleeper picks that I feel could really succeed in Dennis Erickson’s offense.
With their second pick, I think the Legends will go again with someone they are familiar with. Johnson played for Childress in 2012 when he was OC for the Browns. I also feel like his play style fits into the offense Childress and Vick will be putting together.
The Apollos will go back into South Florida with their second round pick. Daniels has a lot of professional experience, but could also lead to some creative play calling, as he has experience at both wide receiver and running back in the NFL.
The Hotshots will look to their own allotment for their second round pick and take former Sun Devil Mike Bercovici. This could lead to some good competition between him and Perez.
I’m sticking with this same second round pick for the Iron and have them choosing to stick within their region, and select former Troy QB Brandon Silvers to backup Sims.
We finish out the 2nd round with the Fleet. I think they will double down on young talent and take another 23 year old in Penn’s Alek Torgersen. His size, smarts, and play style fit in with the Fleet; he also throws a beautiful deep ball which Martz will like.
Round 3
| Team | Player | College |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Fleet | Josh Woodrum | Liberty |
| Birmingham Iron | Eli Jenkins | Jacksonville State |
| Arizona Hotshots | Austin Allen | Arkansas |
| Orlando Apollos | Alejandro Bennifield | Chattanooga |
| Atlanta Legends | Marquise Williams | UNC |
| Salt Lake Stallions | Kyle Bolin | Louisville |
| Memphis Express | Alex Ross | Coastal Carolina |
| San Antonio Commanders | Dalton Sturm | UTSA |
Round 4
| Team | Player | College |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Commanders | Austin Appleby | Purdue |
| Memphis Express | Troy Cook | Tennessee-Martin |
| Salt Lake Stallions | Kevin Anderson | Fordham |
| Atlanta Legends | Jack Heneghan | Dartmouth |
| Orlando Apollos | Justin Holman | UCF |
| Arizona Hotshots | Keith Price | Washington |
| Birmingham Iron | R.J. Nitti | Bucknell |
| San Diego Fleet | Dustin Vaughan | West Texas A&M |