Saturday, February 23rd
Arizona Hotshots (2-0) at Salt Lake Stallions (0-2) [+4.5]
3pm on B/R Live
A rematch of Week 1 where the Hotshots beat the Stallions 38-22 at home. Stallions QB Josh Woodrum left that game in the second half with a hamstring injury and looks to return this week after missing last weeks loss to the Birmingham Iron. They need the spark of Woodrum returning to try and light a fire under their passing game. Austin Allen struggled last week against a stout Iron defense completing less than 50% of his passes for 114 yards. That could open things up for an already very good Stallions run game with Joel Bouagnon and former Charger Branden Oliver.
The Hotshots are coming off a close win against the lowly Memphis Express. Turnovers were the name of the game against the Express, as QB John Wolford had 2 interceptions, WR Josh Huff had a fumble deep in their own territory, and twice they failed to convert on 4th down. Wolford will look to extend on his league leading 6 touchdown passes as he and Apollo QB Garrett Gilbert seem to be the early favorites for league MVP. The big match-up here will be the Hotshots front 7 against the Stallions run game. If the Stallions can control the ball and the clock at home, they have a chance against the league best Hotshots.
I think the Hotshots big play ability is what’s going to push them over in the game. Look for big performances from WRs Rashad Ross and Josh Huff (if Huff can hang on to the ball). I’ll take the Hotshots to cover and the over on 44.5.
Memphis Express (0-2) at Orlando Apollos (2-0) [-15]
8pm on NFL Network
The Memphis Express are coming off a close loss to the Hotshots, and now face off against another powerhouse on the road in the Orlando Apollos. The Express did finally see a spark on offense in their run game. Zac Stacy became the first player in the AAF to rush for 100 yards in a game, and did so against a tough Birmingham Iron defense. However that strong run game couldn’t make up for their shortcomings in the passing game. QB Christian Hackenberg had another abysmal performance going 14/25 for only 102 yards. This will most likely be Hackenberg’s final chance to get going before HC Mike Singletary is forced to make a change. He’ll have a good opportunity against an Apollo defense that gave up nearly 400 yards last week to the Commanders.
Even if the Express manage to get things going against the Apollo defense, they’ll need to try to keep up with the Apollo offense and current MVP favorite Garrett Gilbert. Gilbert leads the league in passing yard (620) and completion percentage (64.2) and has thrown 4 touchdown passes to 0 interceptions. There are two big match-ups here to look at. First is the Apollo pass rush against the Express offensive line. Hackenberg has struggled against pressure and I expect the Apollos to bring some. Second is Apollos star receiver Charles Johnson and the Express’ best corner Channing Stribling.
It’s tough to see that 15 point line and not want to take the points, but after seeing Hackenberg these first 2 weeks, I think it will be a rout by the Apollos. I like the Apollos big and I like the over 45.5 which I think could be covered by the Apollos themselves.
Sunday, February 24th
Birmingham Iron (2-0) at Atlanta Legends (0-2) [+6.5]
4pm on CBS Sports Network
The Birmingham Iron are coming off a unimpressive, close win against the Stallions. They showed once again the kind of ball they want to play by giving Trent Richardson the rock. While Richardson leads the league in rushing touchdowns (3), he will need to do more than his 2.4 yards/carry if they want to succeed at being a ground and pound offense. That being said, Richardson has shown some success in the passing game; he is 2nd in the league among running backs with 7 receptions for 64 yards. Richardson has his best chance to succeed this week against a Legends defense that has given up 137 and 185 rushing yards in the last 2 weeks.
The Atlanta Legends are having a rough start to the season. After getting whomped by the Apollos in week 1, they showed signed of life in the 1st quarter last week against the Fleet, going up 9-0, only to give up 24 points and only add a field goal to lose the game 12-24. Their biggest downfall has been the quarterback play, or lack thereof. They have scored 1 touchdown in the first 2 weeks, which came off an interception that gave them the ball in the redzone. The one bright spot on offense has been RT John Kling IV who PFF has as the highest graded tackle this season. The match-up to watch here is whichever struggling QB the Legends put out, whether its Matt Simms or Aaron Murray, against the Iron secondary. I would not be surprised if we see 2 early turnovers lead to a QB change for the Legends.
Like last weeks game, I expect this to be a low scoring affair with the Iron controlling the clock. I’m going to take the under (39.5) and the points (+6.5) but I expect the Iron to be in control for most of the game.
San Antonio Commanders (1-1) at San Diego Fleet (1-1) [-2.5]
8pm on NFL Network
Another week 1 rematch. In that game, the Commanders won 15-6. Commanders QB Logan Woodside is currently 2nd in the league in passing yards with 478. He has developed a good relationship with his talented wide receiving corps in Mekale McKay, Greg Ward Jr., and especially De’Marcus Ayers, who is PFFs 2nd highest graded WR. I expect them to air it out in San Diego.
The San Diego Fleet finished strong last week after a slow start against the Legends. HC Mike Martz made the switch and started Philip Nelson at quarterback. While Nelson struggled, their run game did not. Ja’Quan Gardner rushed for 104 yards on 15 carries with 2 touchdowns. The match-up to watch this week is Gardner against the Commanders front 7, specifically nose tackle Joey Mbu who has been dominating this season.
This is a tough one to predict, as I believe these teams are evenly matched and it will be a close game. I’m going to take the Fleet and the -2.5 though I think it will likely be a 3 point victory. I also think they will just barely hit the over of 43.5 in something like a 25-22 game.
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